Views on Malaysia’s GDP Growth – Updated

Foreign and local economists seemed divided over their views on GDP growth forecast this year.

Asian Development Bank sees Asia growing by 7.5%

MIER revises GDP growth forecast to 5.2%

World Bank Malaysia’s GDP growth to reach 5.7%

Local Brokers

  • Official growth forecast – 4.5 – 5.5%

Affin Investment Bank – 4.3%

  • Skeptical on stronger-than expected recovery in exports
  • Slower rise in private investment

Maybank Investment Bank – 5.3%

  • Skeptical that exports and investments would rise substantially
  • Leading indicators for Malaysia’s economy in December and January have slowed
  • Growth rates could moderate in the next 6 months

AmInvestment Bank  Bhd – 5%

  • Performance of external economies critical to sustain high growth rates

CIMB Research – 4.8%

  • Global recovery will be gradual and uneven
  • Advanced economies are expected to record moderate growth

Foreign Broker

JPMorgan – 7.7% (initially 6.8%)

  • Strong regional production data in the first quarter
  • Positive outlook for manufacturing sector

HSBC Holdings plc – 7.3%

  • V-shaped recovery in exports
  • Higher commodity prices
  • Higher domestic demand

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